What Happened
The crisis began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes against Iran under “Operation Epic Fury,” targeting military facilities, nuclear sites, and leadership positions. The operation resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, marking a dramatic escalation in regional tensions.
In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officially closed the Strait of Hormuz to Western shipping on March 2, threatening “any ship that passes through it.” The blockade has reduced maritime traffic to a trickle—just 21 tankers have transited the route since the crisis began, compared to more than 100 ships daily before the conflict, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Why It Matters
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, handling approximately 21% of global petroleum liquids and 20% of liquefied natural gas. The Iranian blockade has created immediate economic shockwaves worldwide:
- Oil prices jumped from $65 per barrel pre-crisis to over $100—a 40% increase
- Shipping rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) hit an all-time high of $423,736 per day, up 94% in just days
- Major marine insurance providers have suspended war risk coverage for Persian Gulf vessels
- Global energy markets face severe supply disruptions affecting gasoline prices and economic stability
Iran has conducted at least 21 confirmed attacks on merchant vessels, including strikes on the US-flagged Stena Imperative and the oil tanker Sonangol Namibe in Kuwait waters.
Background
The Strait of Hormuz has long been a strategic flashpoint between Iran and Western powers. This narrow waterway—just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point—connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Iran controls the northern shore and has repeatedly threatened to close the strait during previous tensions.
The current crisis represents the most severe disruption to global oil shipping since the 1980s Iran-Iraq War. Iran’s “tanker war” tactics of the 1980s targeted neutral shipping to pressure international intervention, and similar strategies appear to be in play today.
The February 28 US-Israel strikes marked a significant escalation in the ongoing shadow war between Iran and Western allies, moving from proxy conflicts to direct military action against Iranian territory.
Iran’s Selective Enforcement
On March 5, Iran announced it would maintain selective enforcement of the blockade, keeping the strait closed “only to ships from the US, Israel and their Western allies.” Iranian authorities have allowed vessels from China, India, Pakistan, and Turkey to transit, demonstrating Tehran’s strategy of isolating Western powers while maintaining relationships with key trading partners.
This selective approach reflects Iran’s broader geopolitical calculations, seeking to minimize economic damage to allies while maximizing pressure on adversaries. The policy has created a complex maritime situation where vessel nationality and cargo destination determine passage rights.
What’s Next
On March 19, 2026, the United States Armed Forces launched a military campaign to reopen the strait, signaling the conflict’s potential for further escalation. The operation aims to restore free navigation through international waters, but faces significant challenges:
- Iran’s extensive missile and drone capabilities threaten coalition naval forces
- Mine-laying operations could create long-term shipping hazards
- Regional allies face difficult choices between supporting US action and maintaining Iran relations
- Global energy markets remain volatile as the situation develops
Analysts warn that even a successful military reopening could take weeks or months to fully restore normal shipping patterns, as insurers and shipping companies assess ongoing risks. The crisis has already prompted strategic petroleum reserve releases from major consuming nations and accelerated discussions about alternative energy supply routes.